NUTS-3 ITC48 · Italy
Population
541,9492025
GDP
€16,381M2023
Unemployment· NUTS-2 source
3%2025
Employment· NUTS-2 source
75.1%2025
Active firms· FR-only
—
Cadastral parcels· FR-only
—
Area
2,981.2 km²
TerraSight · Compare
2 regions side-by-side
ITC48 · ITH58
Decision brief
Download brief (PDF)mandate-neutral · ranked by overall opportunity
Best overall fit: Pavia (Opportunity 61). Runner-up: Forlì-Cesena (55). Contrarian pick: Forlì-Cesena — leads the set on Demographic outlook (EU pctl 80).
#1Pavia
Strengths
Demographic outlook (70) · Industrial base (59)
Red flags
Long-run slide: down 40 EU ranks in real GDP per head since 1995 (relative decline, not absolute)
Why you might not pick Pavia
Long-run slide: down 40 EU ranks in real GDP per head since 1995 (relative decline, not absolute). Its weakest dimension is Governance (EU pctl 20) — Forlì-Cesena may suit a mandate that weights that higher.
How robust is this recommendation?
Pavia leads under all four archetype mandates — the recommendation is weight-stable.
Phase-2 diligence checklist
- Site-level grid connection capacity and power pricing (beyond country-grain energy data)
- Local incentives, tax regimes and permitting timelines
- Workforce depth for your specific roles (the talent pillar is a proxy)
- Real-estate availability, rents and land — public pan-EU data stops at the Nordics
This is a mandate-neutral read. To weight the pillars to your thesis, run these regions through the Site Screener — it ranks all 1,211 regions under your weights and exports the full PDF. First-pass macro screening, not investment advice.
Composite intelligence · 0–100 EU-percentile scores
Opportunity Indexscale + growth + access + structure
60.5
54.6
Resilience Indexdiversification, stability, buffers
46.8
58.0
Quality of Lifeprosperity, health, safety, environment
46.5
50.9
Connectivitytransit + air + market access
49.7
38.3
Talent & Human Capitalskills, learning, knowledge workers
29.5
34.3
Growth Momentumrecent GDP / employment trajectory
44.6
43.4
Trajectories · 2012–latest
Real GDP (2020 prices)
3.1% 5y
2.6% 5y
Population
0.1% 5y
0.1% 5y
Unemployment rate
11.7% 5y
5.0% 5y
Derived comparisons
GDP per capita
€30,226
€39,683
Population density
182 /km²
166 /km²
Parcels per 1k pop
FR-only
FR-only
Firms per 1k pop
FR-only
FR-only
All indicators · 87 metrics (Eurostat, all-EU)
Economy
Gross value added, total (current prices)
€14,716M
€14,023M
GVA — agriculture, forestry & fishing (A)
€315M
€567M
GVA — industry (B–E)
€3,280M
€3,497M
GVA — manufacturing (C)
€2,836M
€3,078M
GVA — construction (F)
€959M
€893M
GVA — wholesale/retail, transport, ICT (G–J)
€2,858M
€3,133M
Net disposable household income per capita (NUTS-2 source) ·N2
€26,600
€25,400
GDP per capita in PPS (purchasing-power adjusted)
31,600 PPS
41,300 PPS
GDP per capita (current prices, EUR)
€30,500
€39,800
Gross fixed capital formation — investment (total economy) ·N2
€101,220M
€45,497M
Investment in manufacturing capex (GFCF, NACE C) ·N2
€19,922M
€12,104M
Compensation of employees (total wage bill) ·N2
€188,904M
€74,553M
GVA — real estate activities (L)
€2,116M
€2,016M
GVA — information & communication (J)
€223M
€207M
GVA — finance, real estate & professional (K–N)
€4,515M
€3,722M
GVA — public admin, health & education (O–U)
€2,789M
€2,210M
Real GDP (constant 2020 prices, incl. short-term forecast)
€14,916M
€14,119M
Labour productivity per person employed (EUR)
€84,712
€83,708
Gross fixed capital formation, NUTS-3 (ARDECO)
€3,432M
€3,711M
Labour market
Employment, total persons
199,200
192,100
Self-employed persons
50,700
45,200
Employment in manufacturing (C)
32,600
37,700
Activity rate, 15–64 (NUTS-2 source) ·N2
71.7%
74.5%
Youth unemployment rate (15–24) ·N2
10.9%
17.4%
Unemployment rate 15-74, NUTS-3 native (ARDECO)
2.9%
4.1%
Labour force aged 15+ (ARDECO)
251,100
188,800
Business demography
Active enterprises (business economy, all sizes)
37,947
33,277
Enterprise births
2,903
2,117
Enterprise deaths
2,313
1,891
3-year enterprise survival rate
4.0%
3.7%
Innovation & R&D
R&D expenditure as % of GDP ·N2
1.2%
2.1%
Employment in high-tech sectors (% of total) ·N2
5.3%
3.8%
R&D personnel (% of active population, FTE) ·N2
1.6%
2.1%
Education
Tertiary education attainment, age 25–64 ·N2
23.6%
25.3%
Tertiary attainment, age 25–34 (young talent pool) ·N2
34.0%
36.2%
Adult participation in learning, age 25–64 (last 4 weeks) ·N2
11.8%
13.1%
Knowledge workers — tertiary-educated & in science/tech (% of labour force) ·N2
18.7%
19.2%
Scientists & engineers (% of labour force) ·N2
5.2%
5.3%
Digital
Households with internet access ·N2
96.0%
96.2%
Tourism
Nights spent at tourist accommodation (total)
643,092
5,803,947
Mobility
Passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants ·N2
640 /1k
691 /1k
Distinct public-transport stop locations within the region (GTFS feeds, deduplicated across overlapping feeds by coordinate). A measure of transit-network extent.
50
8
Road freight loaded (annual, thousand tonnes)
16,525 kt
9,712 kt
Public-transport stops per 100,000 inhabitants — transit service density relative to population (GTFS feeds, coordinate-deduplicated).
9
2
Motorway density (km per 1,000 km²) ·N2
32 km/1000km²
31 km/1000km²
Distance from the region centroid to the nearest major (large) airport, in km - air-connectivity accessibility. Lower is better.
47
46
Number of major (large) airports within 100 km of the region centroid - air-hub catchment richness.
4
3
Demography
Population aged 15–64 (working age)
342,342
246,581
Population aged 65+
137,577
100,393
Population aged under 15
62,030
46,393
Median age of population
49.9 yrs
49.6 yrs
Old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 15–64)
40.2%
40.7%
Crude rate of total population change
6.1 /1k
1.4 /1k
Crude rate of net migration plus adjustment
13.3 /1k
6.6 /1k
Crude birth rate
6.1 /1k
5.9 /1k
Crude death rate
13.2 /1k
11.2 /1k
Live births
3,282
2,335
Deaths
7,141
4,383
Total age-dependency ratio (young+old / 15-64)
58.3%
59.5%
Total fertility rate (births per woman)
1.19
1.17
Population density (persons per km²)
185 /km²
165 /km²
Projected population, 2030–2040 (EUROPOP2019 baseline)
480,613
388,360
Social
At risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE) ·N2
12.5%
8.2%
Life expectancy at birth ·N2
84.4 yrs
84.3 yrs
At-risk-of-poverty rate (regional) ·N2
9.2%
6.7%
Health
Hospital beds per 100k inhabitants ·N2
322 /100k
369 /100k
Mortality, all causes (age-standardised rate) ·N2
835 /100k
860 /100k
Cancer mortality (age-standardised rate) ·N2
222 /100k
212 /100k
Safety & crime
Intentional homicides per 100k inhabitants
0.7 /100k
0.0 /100k
Robberies per 100k inhabitants
33.6 /100k
35.5 /100k
Thefts per 100k inhabitants
1,472 /100k
1,124 /100k
Road traffic deaths per million inhabitants ·N2
38 /M
61 /M
Governance & institutions
Government effectiveness, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
0.72
0.72
Regulatory quality, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
0.60
0.60
Rule of law, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
0.57
0.57
Control of corruption, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
0.57
0.57
Political stability & absence of violence, WGI score (country)
0.41
0.41
Energy
Industrial electricity price, 2-20 GWh band, excl. taxes (national)
€0.159/kWh
€0.159/kWh
Industrial gas price, 10-100k GJ band, excl. taxes (national)
€0.048/kWh
€0.048/kWh
Climate
Elevation at region centroid (Copernicus DEM)
75 m
363 m
Hot days ≥30°C (avg per year)
55 days/yr
35 days/yr
Frost days ≤0°C (avg per year)
35 days/yr
30 days/yr
Heavy-precipitation days ≥20mm (avg per year)
10 days/yr
10 days/yr