CEE logistics 2026: demographic durability separates the field
Screening 230+ Central & Eastern European NUTS-3 regions for logistics siting shows most top-ranked hubs sit on shrinking demographics — and names the handful that do not.
Only 6 of the top 12 CEE logistics regions are projected to gain population by 2040.
Central and Eastern Europe has been the default answer to “where do we put the next distribution centre” for a decade: cost-competitive labour, EU-harmonized customs, and freight corridors that keep densifying. Screening every CEE NUTS-3 region under a logistics mandate — freight intensity, connectivity, cost, labour depth, growth momentum, demographic outlook and resilience, all as EU-wide percentiles — confirms the region’s strength. It also exposes a fault line most siting shortlists ignore.
The fault line is demographic. A warehouse underwritten on a 15–20-year horizon needs a labour catchment that still exists in 2040. Eurostat’s EUROPOP2019 baseline projections, mapped to NUTS-3, show most of the CEE logistics elite sitting on shrinking populations.
What the screen shows
Středočeský kraj (CZ) leads the CEE field at 72.8 — with a projected 2040 population of +3.9%.
The demographically durable trio: Středočeský kraj (+3.9%), Poznański (+4.0%), Hlavní město Praha (+3.8%) combine top-decile logistics scores with growing 2040 catchments.
Warszawski zachodni — the Warsaw-west corridor most international occupiers shortlist first — scores near the top on infrastructure but carries a shrinking 2040 outlook. It remains a strong 10-year hold; the 20-year underwrite is a different conversation.
The Polish Tricity (Gdański) pairs a 90th-percentile cost position with the strongest demographic outlook in the CEE top tier — the closest thing to a free lunch in this screen.
Top 12 CEE regions — logistics mandate
#
Region
CC
Score
Population
Cost pctl
Freight pctl
Pop. 2040
1
Středočeský kraj
CZ
72.8
1,466,215
70
88
+3.9%
2
Warszawski zachodni
PL
71.6
728,027
76
84
-3.6%
3
Trójmiejski
PL
67.5
743,681
90
93
-4.4%
4
Poznański
PL
67.5
723,864
85
87
+4.0%
5
Jihočeský kraj
CZ
65.6
653,227
76
74
-2.8%
6
Wrocławski
PL
65.4
635,742
86
92
-1.2%
7
Hlavní město Praha
CZ
64.8
1,397,880
65
27
+3.8%
8
Pardubický kraj
CZ
64.2
530,469
77
80
-2.3%
9
Plzeňský kraj
CZ
64.1
614,640
76
74
-1.3%
10
Bratislavský kraj
SK
62.1
736,385
67
16
+1.5%
11
Osrednjeslovenska
SI
61.7
569,475
69
48
+2.8%
12
Варна
BG
61.5
437,521
99
77
+0.6%
Score = weighted EU-percentile blend under the logistics preset. Pop. 2040 = EUROPOP2019 baseline vs latest population.
The screen ranks where to look, not which site to buy: land, zoning, incentives and grid connections remain phase-2 diligence. But if the mandate says “hold through 2040”, demographic durability belongs in phase 1 — and it reorders the CEE shortlist.
Run this screen on your own mandate
Every number above comes from the live TerraSight dataset — adjust the weights, add hard filters, and export the full mandate report for your IC pack.
Sources: Eurostat (incl. EUROPOP2019 projections), national statistical offices (SCB, StatFin, SSB), JRC ARDECO, World Bank WGI, EEA — open licences, harmonized nightly. Methodology: how TerraSight scores regions. This is first-pass macro screening, not investment advice; site-level diligence (land, zoning, incentives, grid) is phase 2.