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2 regions side-by-side

DE409 · ES414

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NUTS-3 DE409 · Germany
Population
197,8172025
GDP
€5,424M2023
Unemployment· NUTS-2 source
3.8%2025
Employment· NUTS-2 source
81.6%2025
Active firms· FR-only
Cadastral parcels· FR-only
Area
2,156.5 km²
NUTS-3 ES414 · Spain
Population
158,7022025
GDP
€5,048M2023
Unemployment· NUTS-2 source
8.6%2025
Employment· NUTS-2 source
74.3%2025
Active firms· FR-only
Cadastral parcels· FR-only
Area
8,050.6 km²

Decision brief

Download brief (PDF)mandate-neutral · ranked by overall opportunity

Best overall fit: Märkisch-Oderland (Opportunity 48). Runner-up: Palencia (37). Contrarian pick: Palencia — leads the set on Energy cost (EU pctl 95).

Strengths
Labour market (70) · Freight intensity (68)
Red flags
Industrial base (EU bottom 15%)
Long-run slide: down 14 EU ranks in real GDP per head since 1995 (relative decline, not absolute)
Strengths
Energy cost (95) · Freight intensity (92)
Red flags
Demographic outlook (EU bottom 15%)
Connectivity (EU bottom 15%)
Why you might not pick Märkisch-Oderland
Industrial base (EU bottom 15%); Long-run slide: down 14 EU ranks in real GDP per head since 1995 (relative decline, not absolute). Its weakest dimension is Industrial base (EU pctl 12) — Palencia may suit a mandate that weights that higher.
How robust is this recommendation?
The leader depends on the mandate: LogisticsMärkisch-Oderland · ManufacturingPalencia · OfficePalencia · ResidentialMärkisch-Oderland.
Phase-2 diligence checklist
  • Site-level grid connection capacity and power pricing (beyond country-grain energy data)
  • Local incentives, tax regimes and permitting timelines
  • Workforce depth for your specific roles (the talent pillar is a proxy)
  • Real-estate availability, rents and land — public pan-EU data stops at the Nordics

This is a mandate-neutral read. To weight the pillars to your thesis, run these regions through the Site Screener — it ranks all 1,211 regions under your weights and exports the full PDF. First-pass macro screening, not investment advice.

Composite intelligence · 0–100 EU-percentile scores

Opportunity Indexscale + growth + access + structure
48.1
37.4
Resilience Indexdiversification, stability, buffers
63.0
35.8
Quality of Lifeprosperity, health, safety, environment
54.6
54.4
Clean AirPM2.5 / PM10 / NO₂ inverted
66.7
76.0
Connectivitytransit + air + market access
59.3
11.7
Talent & Human Capitalskills, learning, knowledge workers
27.0
60.3
Growth Momentumrecent GDP / employment trajectory
51.8
47.2

Trajectories · 2012–latest

Real GDP (2020 prices)
0.5% 5y
2.8% 5y
Population
0.2% 5y
0.2% 5y
Unemployment rate
0.5% 5y
5.0% 5y

Derived comparisons

GDP per capita
€27,417
€31,805
Population density
92 /km²
20 /km²
Parcels per 1k pop
FR-only
FR-only
Firms per 1k pop
FR-only
FR-only

All indicators · 87 metrics (Eurostat, all-EU)

Economy
Gross value added, total (current prices)
€4,954M
€4,606M
GVA — agriculture, forestry & fishing (A)
€131M
€219M
GVA — industry (B–E)
€770M
€1,462M
GVA — manufacturing (C)
€364M
€1,122M
GVA — construction (F)
€517M
€242M
GVA — wholesale/retail, transport, ICT (G–J)
€933M
€876M
Net disposable household income per capita (NUTS-2 source) ·N2
€26,000
€18,500
GDP per capita in PPS (purchasing-power adjusted)
24,500 PPS
35,900 PPS
GDP per capita (current prices, EUR)
€27,500
€32,000
Gross fixed capital formation — investment (total economy) ·N2
€23,042M
€13,527M
Investment in manufacturing capex (GFCF, NACE C) ·N2
€2,607M
€2,707M
Compensation of employees (total wage bill) ·N2
€47,281M
€32,274M
GVA — finance, real estate & professional (K–N)
€1,125M
€836M
GVA — public admin, health & education (O–U)
€1,478M
€972M
Real GDP (constant 2020 prices, incl. short-term forecast)
€4,350M
€4,633M
Labour productivity per person employed (EUR)
€80,174
€78,799
Gross fixed capital formation, NUTS-3 (ARDECO)
€1,328M
€1,108M
Labour market
Employment, total persons
71,410
68,900
Self-employed persons
8,990
11,700
Employment in manufacturing (C)
5,450
13,400
Activity rate, 15–64 (NUTS-2 source) ·N2
80.0%
75.7%
Youth unemployment rate (15–24) ·N2
7.3%
24.7%
Unemployment rate 15-74, NUTS-3 native (ARDECO)
3.8%
8.6%
Labour force aged 15+ (ARDECO)
98,000
74,800
Business demography
Active enterprises (business economy, all sizes)
7,366
9,341
Enterprise births
544
568
Enterprise deaths
686
583
3-year enterprise survival rate
3.7%
3.6%
Innovation & R&D
R&D expenditure as % of GDP ·N2
1.5%
1.4%
Employment in high-tech sectors (% of total) ·N2
4.1%
3.3%
R&D personnel (% of active population, FTE) ·N2
0.8%
1.1%
Education
Tertiary education attainment, age 25–64 ·N2
32.2%
42.1%
Tertiary attainment, age 25–34 (young talent pool) ·N2
31.8%
52.3%
Adult participation in learning, age 25–64 (last 4 weeks) ·N2
6.4%
15.3%
Knowledge workers — tertiary-educated & in science/tech (% of labour force) ·N2
21.9%
22.8%
Scientists & engineers (% of labour force) ·N2
7.6%
7.3%
Digital
Households with internet access ·N2
96.0%
Tourism
Nights spent at tourist accommodation (total)
300,677
758,457
Mobility
Passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants ·N2
584 /1k
601 /1k
Road freight loaded (annual, thousand tonnes)
7,379 kt
8,872 kt
Distinct public-transport stop locations within the region (GTFS feeds, deduplicated across overlapping feeds by coordinate). A measure of transit-network extent.
1,357
17
Motorway density (km per 1,000 km²) ·N2
28 km/1000km²
26 km/1000km²
Public-transport stops per 100,000 inhabitants — transit service density relative to population (GTFS feeds, coordinate-deduplicated).
686
11
Distance from the region centroid to the nearest major (large) airport, in km - air-connectivity accessibility. Lower is better.
55
171
Number of major (large) airports within 100 km of the region centroid - air-hub catchment richness.
1
0
Demography
Population aged 15–64 (working age)
118,573
96,993
Population aged 65+
52,175
44,739
Population aged under 15
27,069
16,970
Median age of population
50.5 yrs
51.4 yrs
Old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 15–64)
44.0%
46.1%
Crude rate of total population change
0.2 /1k
4.0 /1k
Crude rate of net migration plus adjustment
8.5 /1k
12.0 /1k
Crude birth rate
5.5 /1k
5.2 /1k
Crude death rate
13.8 /1k
13.2 /1k
Live births
1,079
824
Deaths
2,724
2,085
Total age-dependency ratio (young+old / 15-64)
66.8%
63.6%
Total fertility rate (births per woman)
1.36
1.08
Population density (persons per km²)
93 /km²
20 /km²
Projected population, 2030–2040 (EUROPOP2019 baseline)
185,191
87,585
Social
At risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE) ·N2
19.6%
24.1%
Life expectancy at birth ·N2
81.0 yrs
84.8 yrs
At-risk-of-poverty rate (regional) ·N2
14.7%
19.8%
Health
Hospital beds per 100k inhabitants ·N2
343 /100k
Mortality, all causes (age-standardised rate) ·N2
1,113 /100k
749 /100k
Cancer mortality (age-standardised rate) ·N2
245 /100k
212 /100k
Safety & crime
Intentional homicides per 100k inhabitants
0.5 /100k
1.3 /100k
Robberies per 100k inhabitants
34.9 /100k
20.3 /100k
Burglaries per 100k inhabitants
300 /100k
172 /100k
Thefts per 100k inhabitants
823 /100k
101 /100k
Road traffic deaths per million inhabitants ·N2
45 /M
68 /M
Governance & institutions
Government effectiveness, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
1.78
1.14
Regulatory quality, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
1.56
0.84
Rule of law, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
1.58
0.96
Control of corruption, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
1.82
0.78
Political stability & absence of violence, WGI score (country)
0.53
0.16
Energy
Industrial electricity price, 2-20 GWh band, excl. taxes (national)
€0.161/kWh
€0.106/kWh
Industrial gas price, 10-100k GJ band, excl. taxes (national)
€0.055/kWh
€0.048/kWh
Climate
Elevation at region centroid (Copernicus DEM)
9 m
874 m
Hot days ≥30°C (avg per year)
9 days/yr
29 days/yr
Frost days ≤0°C (avg per year)
60 days/yr
52 days/yr
Heavy-precipitation days ≥20mm (avg per year)
2 days/yr
2 days/yr