NUTS-3 BG415 · Bulgaria
Population
106,1312025
GDP
€893M2024
Unemployment· NUTS-2 source
1.9%2025
Employment· NUTS-2 source
81.5%2025
Active firms· FR-only
—
Cadastral parcels· FR-only
—
Area
3,042.1 km²
TerraSight · Compare
2 regions side-by-side
BG415 · BG424
Decision brief
Download brief (PDF)mandate-neutral · ranked by overall opportunity
Best overall fit: Кюстендил (Opportunity 32). Runner-up: Смолян (22). Contrarian pick: Смолян — leads the set on Cost advantage (EU pctl 99).
Strengths
Cost advantage (87) · Labour market (70)
Red flags
Economic base (EU bottom 15%)
Demographic outlook (EU bottom 15%)
Freight intensity (EU bottom 15%)
Governance (EU bottom 15%)
#2Смолян
Strengths
Cost advantage (99) · Industrial base (71)
Red flags
Economic base (EU bottom 15%)
Demographic outlook (EU bottom 15%)
Governance (EU bottom 15%)
Why you might not pick Кюстендил
Economic base (EU bottom 15%); Demographic outlook (EU bottom 15%); Freight intensity (EU bottom 15%); Governance (EU bottom 15%). Its weakest dimension is Governance (EU pctl 0) — Смолян may suit a mandate that weights that higher.
How robust is this recommendation?
Кюстендил leads under all four archetype mandates — the recommendation is weight-stable.
Phase-2 diligence checklist
- Site-level grid connection capacity and power pricing (beyond country-grain energy data)
- Local incentives, tax regimes and permitting timelines
- Workforce depth for your specific roles (the talent pillar is a proxy)
- Real-estate availability, rents and land — public pan-EU data stops at the Nordics
This is a mandate-neutral read. To weight the pillars to your thesis, run these regions through the Site Screener — it ranks all 1,211 regions under your weights and exports the full PDF. First-pass macro screening, not investment advice.
Composite intelligence · 0–100 EU-percentile scores
Opportunity Indexscale + growth + access + structure
32.2
21.9
Resilience Indexdiversification, stability, buffers
38.8
27.8
Quality of Lifeprosperity, health, safety, environment
49.0
31.6
Connectivitytransit + air + market access
30.5
29.5
Talent & Human Capitalskills, learning, knowledge workers
65.0
29.8
Growth Momentumrecent GDP / employment trajectory
62.6
45.8
Trajectories · 2012–latest
Real GDP (2020 prices)
2.3% 5y
3.1% 5y
Population
1.3% 5y
1.7% 5y
Unemployment rate
12.5% 5y
1.2% 5y
Derived comparisons
GDP per capita
€8,413
€9,614
Population density
35 /km²
28 /km²
Parcels per 1k pop
FR-only
FR-only
Firms per 1k pop
FR-only
FR-only
All indicators · 86 metrics (Eurostat, all-EU)
Economy
Gross value added, total (current prices)
€779M
€759M
GVA — agriculture, forestry & fishing (A)
€49M
€48M
GVA — industry (B–E)
€160M
€184M
GVA — manufacturing (C)
€131M
€171M
GVA — construction (F)
€36M
€52M
GVA — wholesale/retail, transport, ICT (G–J)
€161M
€141M
Net disposable household income per capita (NUTS-2 source) ·N2
€11,300
€6,700
GDP per capita in PPS (purchasing-power adjusted)
13,500 PPS
15,400 PPS
GDP per capita (current prices, EUR)
€8,400
€9,500
Gross fixed capital formation — investment (total economy) ·N2
€9,359M
€2,738M
Investment in manufacturing capex (GFCF, NACE C) ·N2
€686M
€682M
Compensation of employees (total wage bill) ·N2
€21,611M
€5,794M
GVA — real estate activities (L)
€130M
€101M
GVA — information & communication (J)
€3M
€3M
GVA — finance, real estate & professional (K–N)
€169M
€131M
GVA — public admin, health & education (O–U)
€204M
€203M
Real GDP (constant 2020 prices, incl. short-term forecast)
€664M
€733M
Labour productivity per person employed (EUR)
€23,842
€23,399
Gross fixed capital formation, NUTS-3 (ARDECO)
€207M
€225M
Labour market
Employment, total persons
46,550
51,330
Self-employed persons
14,520
14,390
Employment in manufacturing (C)
10,940
14,010
Activity rate, 15–64 (NUTS-2 source) ·N2
76.5%
69.9%
Youth unemployment rate (15–24) ·N2
6.6%
14.6%
Unemployment rate 15-74, NUTS-3 native (ARDECO)
1.8%
3.3%
Labour force aged 15+ (ARDECO)
49,600
39,200
Business demography
Active enterprises (business economy, all sizes)
6,060
5,121
Enterprise births
612
461
Enterprise deaths
806
666
3-year enterprise survival rate
5.4%
4.8%
Innovation & R&D
R&D expenditure as % of GDP ·N2
1.3%
0.4%
Employment in high-tech sectors (% of total) ·N2
10.2%
3.2%
R&D personnel (% of active population, FTE) ·N2
1.6%
0.5%
Education
Tertiary education attainment, age 25–64 ·N2
44.5%
29.3%
Tertiary attainment, age 25–34 (young talent pool) ·N2
48.4%
36.6%
Adult participation in learning, age 25–64 (last 4 weeks) ·N2
5.4%
6.8%
Knowledge workers — tertiary-educated & in science/tech (% of labour force) ·N2
32.4%
21.0%
Scientists & engineers (% of labour force) ·N2
11.7%
7.5%
Digital
Households with internet access ·N2
95.9%
92.3%
Tourism
Nights spent at tourist accommodation (total)
241,171
826,373
Mobility
Passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants ·N2
525 /1k
457 /1k
Road freight loaded (annual, thousand tonnes)
735 kt
1,524 kt
Motorway density (km per 1,000 km²) ·N2
15 km/1000km²
9 km/1000km²
Distance from the region centroid to the nearest major (large) airport, in km - air-connectivity accessibility. Lower is better.
59
54
Number of major (large) airports within 100 km of the region centroid - air-hub catchment richness.
1
2
Demography
Population aged 15–64 (working age)
62,828
54,031
Population aged 65+
30,497
27,182
Population aged under 15
12,806
9,321
Median age of population
51.5 yrs
53.5 yrs
Old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 15–64)
48.5%
50.3%
Crude rate of total population change
-14.4 /1k
-17.2 /1k
Crude rate of net migration plus adjustment
0.0 /1k
-5.0 /1k
Crude birth rate
6.9 /1k
5.2 /1k
Crude death rate
21.3 /1k
17.5 /1k
Live births
735
479
Deaths
2,277
1,599
Total age-dependency ratio (young+old / 15-64)
68.9%
67.6%
Total fertility rate (births per woman)
1.78
1.52
Population density (persons per km²)
35 /km²
29 /km²
Projected population, 2030–2040 (EUROPOP2019 baseline)
46,050
28,999
Social
At risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE) ·N2
19.8%
34.4%
Life expectancy at birth ·N2
77.0 yrs
76.1 yrs
At-risk-of-poverty rate (regional) ·N2
13.6%
25.6%
Health
Hospital beds per 100k inhabitants ·N2
792 /100k
924 /100k
Mortality, all causes (age-standardised rate) ·N2
2,069 /100k
2,023 /100k
Cancer mortality (age-standardised rate) ·N2
194 /100k
240 /100k
Safety & crime
Intentional homicides per 100k inhabitants
0.0 /100k
2.2 /100k
Robberies per 100k inhabitants
6.5 /100k
3.3 /100k
Burglaries per 100k inhabitants
35.3 /100k
4.3 /100k
Thefts per 100k inhabitants
267 /100k
77.1 /100k
Road traffic deaths per million inhabitants ·N2
40 /M
80 /M
Governance & institutions
Government effectiveness, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
-0.07
-0.07
Regulatory quality, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
0.25
0.25
Rule of law, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
-0.10
-0.10
Control of corruption, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
-0.14
-0.14
Political stability & absence of violence, WGI score (country)
0.33
0.33
Energy
Industrial electricity price, 2-20 GWh band, excl. taxes (national)
€0.135/kWh
€0.135/kWh
Industrial gas price, 10-100k GJ band, excl. taxes (national)
€0.041/kWh
€0.041/kWh
Climate
Elevation at region centroid (Copernicus DEM)
1,224 m
1,682 m
Hot days ≥30°C (avg per year)
3 days/yr
0 days/yr
Frost days ≤0°C (avg per year)
153 days/yr
155 days/yr
Heavy-precipitation days ≥20mm (avg per year)
4 days/yr
8 days/yr