NUTS-3 BG412 · Bulgaria
Population
224,7012025
GDP
€2,898M2024
Unemployment· NUTS-2 source
1.9%2025
Employment· NUTS-2 source
81.5%2025
Active firms· FR-only
—
Cadastral parcels· FR-only
—
Area
7,072.7 km²
TerraSight · Compare
2 regions side-by-side
BG412 · EL613
Decision brief
Download brief (PDF)mandate-neutral · ranked by overall opportunity
Best overall fit: София (Opportunity 34). Runner-up: Μαγνησία, Σποράδες (27). Contrarian pick: Μαγνησία, Σποράδες — leads the set on Demographic outlook (EU pctl 64).
#1София
Strengths
Industrial base (98) · Freight intensity (90)
Red flags
Economic base (EU bottom 15%)
Demographic outlook (EU bottom 15%)
Governance (EU bottom 15%)
Resilience (EU bottom 15%)
Strengths
Cost advantage (86) · Demographic outlook (64)
Red flags
Economic base (EU bottom 15%)
Labour market (EU bottom 15%)
Connectivity (EU bottom 15%)
Governance (EU bottom 15%)
Air quality (EU bottom 15%)
Why you might not pick София
Economic base (EU bottom 15%); Demographic outlook (EU bottom 15%); Governance (EU bottom 15%); Resilience (EU bottom 15%). Its weakest dimension is Governance (EU pctl 0) — Μαγνησία, Σποράδες may suit a mandate that weights that higher.
How robust is this recommendation?
София leads under all four archetype mandates — the recommendation is weight-stable.
Phase-2 diligence checklist
- Site-level grid connection capacity and power pricing (beyond country-grain energy data)
- Local incentives, tax regimes and permitting timelines
- Workforce depth for your specific roles (the talent pillar is a proxy)
- Real-estate availability, rents and land — public pan-EU data stops at the Nordics
This is a mandate-neutral read. To weight the pillars to your thesis, run these regions through the Site Screener — it ranks all 1,211 regions under your weights and exports the full PDF. First-pass macro screening, not investment advice.
Composite intelligence · 0–100 EU-percentile scores
Opportunity Indexscale + growth + access + structure
33.6
27.4
Resilience Indexdiversification, stability, buffers
9.8
21.5
Quality of Lifeprosperity, health, safety, environment
41.5
24.8
Clean AirPM2.5 / PM10 / NO₂ inverted
—
4.0
Connectivitytransit + air + market access
32.0
6.7
Talent & Human Capitalskills, learning, knowledge workers
65.0
21.8
Growth Momentumrecent GDP / employment trajectory
60.8
55.6
Trajectories · 2012–latest
Real GDP (2020 prices)
0.5% 5y
4.2% 5y
Population
2.5% 5y
0.7% 5y
Unemployment rate
11.5% 5y
18.2% 5y
Derived comparisons
GDP per capita
€12,898
€17,394
Population density
32 /km²
71 /km²
Parcels per 1k pop
FR-only
FR-only
Firms per 1k pop
FR-only
FR-only
All indicators · 89 metrics (Eurostat, all-EU)
Economy
Gross value added, total (current prices)
€2,529M
€2,848M
GVA — agriculture, forestry & fishing (A)
€90M
€161M
GVA — industry (B–E)
€1,245M
€604M
GVA — manufacturing (C)
€1,137M
€509M
GVA — construction (F)
€82M
€42M
GVA — wholesale/retail, transport, ICT (G–J)
€480M
€867M
Net disposable household income per capita (NUTS-2 source) ·N2
€11,300
€11,700
GDP per capita in PPS (purchasing-power adjusted)
20,800 PPS
20,200 PPS
GDP per capita (current prices, EUR)
€12,800
€16,400
Gross fixed capital formation — investment (total economy) ·N2
€9,359M
€2,244M
Investment in manufacturing capex (GFCF, NACE C) ·N2
€686M
€354M
Compensation of employees (total wage bill) ·N2
€21,611M
€4,089M
GVA — real estate activities (L)
€255M
€299M
GVA — information & communication (J)
€21M
€17M
GVA — finance, real estate & professional (K–N)
€319M
€477M
GVA — public admin, health & education (O–U)
€313M
€698M
Real GDP (constant 2020 prices, incl. short-term forecast)
€2,156M
€2,988M
Labour productivity per person employed (EUR)
€29,249
€46,145
Gross fixed capital formation, NUTS-3 (ARDECO)
€673M
€754M
Labour market
Employment, total persons
97,620
77,090
Self-employed persons
26,810
26,510
Employment in manufacturing (C)
23,540
10,020
Activity rate, 15–64 (NUTS-2 source) ·N2
76.5%
65.7%
Youth unemployment rate (15–24) ·N2
6.6%
16.0%
Unemployment rate 15-74, NUTS-3 native (ARDECO)
1.9%
6.2%
Labour force aged 15+ (ARDECO)
109,300
82,600
Business demography
Active enterprises (business economy, all sizes)
9,759
16,913
Enterprise births
1,059
1,212
Enterprise deaths
1,313
611
3-year enterprise survival rate
5.1%
4.6%
Innovation & R&D
R&D expenditure as % of GDP ·N2
1.3%
1.1%
Employment in high-tech sectors (% of total) ·N2
10.2%
1.1%
R&D personnel (% of active population, FTE) ·N2
1.6%
1.1%
Education
Tertiary education attainment, age 25–64 ·N2
44.5%
31.4%
Tertiary attainment, age 25–34 (young talent pool) ·N2
48.4%
37.9%
Adult participation in learning, age 25–64 (last 4 weeks) ·N2
5.4%
5.3%
Knowledge workers — tertiary-educated & in science/tech (% of labour force) ·N2
32.4%
17.9%
Scientists & engineers (% of labour force) ·N2
11.7%
6.9%
Digital
Households with internet access ·N2
95.9%
—
Tourism
Nights spent at tourist accommodation (total)
707,173
2,926,608
Mobility
Passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants ·N2
525 /1k
395 /1k
Distinct public-transport stop locations within the region (GTFS feeds, deduplicated across overlapping feeds by coordinate). A measure of transit-network extent.
29
1
Road freight loaded (annual, thousand tonnes)
11,957 kt
2,993 kt
Public-transport stops per 100,000 inhabitants — transit service density relative to population (GTFS feeds, coordinate-deduplicated).
13
1
Motorway density (km per 1,000 km²) ·N2
15 km/1000km²
17 km/1000km²
Distance from the region centroid to the nearest major (large) airport, in km - air-connectivity accessibility. Lower is better.
46
138
Number of major (large) airports within 100 km of the region centroid - air-hub catchment richness.
2
0
Demography
Population aged 15–64 (working age)
138,452
117,275
Population aged 65+
54,464
46,682
Population aged under 15
31,785
23,695
Median age of population
47.8 yrs
48.0 yrs
Old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 15–64)
39.3%
39.8%
Crude rate of total population change
-7.6 /1k
-2.8 /1k
Crude rate of net migration plus adjustment
1.3 /1k
3.1 /1k
Crude birth rate
8.5 /1k
6.3 /1k
Crude death rate
17.5 /1k
12.1 /1k
Live births
1,927
1,181
Deaths
3,944
2,278
Total age-dependency ratio (young+old / 15-64)
62.3%
60.0%
Total fertility rate (births per woman)
1.89
1.23
Population density (persons per km²)
32 /km²
72 /km²
Projected population, 2030–2040 (EUROPOP2019 baseline)
121,034
141,822
Social
At risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE) ·N2
19.8%
30.5%
Life expectancy at birth ·N2
77.0 yrs
82.2 yrs
At-risk-of-poverty rate (regional) ·N2
13.6%
25.0%
Health
Hospital beds per 100k inhabitants ·N2
792 /100k
608 /100k
Mortality, all causes (age-standardised rate) ·N2
2,069 /100k
1,115 /100k
Cancer mortality (age-standardised rate) ·N2
194 /100k
240 /100k
Safety & crime
Intentional homicides per 100k inhabitants
2.2 /100k
0.5 /100k
Robberies per 100k inhabitants
8.8 /100k
1.1 /100k
Burglaries per 100k inhabitants
24.3 /100k
22.3 /100k
Thefts per 100k inhabitants
271 /100k
226 /100k
Road traffic deaths per million inhabitants ·N2
40 /M
53 /M
Governance & institutions
Government effectiveness, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
-0.07
0.56
Regulatory quality, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
0.25
0.42
Rule of law, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
-0.10
0.49
Control of corruption, WGI score -2.5..2.5 (country)
-0.14
0.32
Political stability & absence of violence, WGI score (country)
0.33
0.24
Energy
Industrial electricity price, 2-20 GWh band, excl. taxes (national)
€0.135/kWh
€0.143/kWh
Industrial gas price, 10-100k GJ band, excl. taxes (national)
€0.041/kWh
€0.039/kWh
Climate
Elevation at region centroid (Copernicus DEM)
651 m
196 m
Hot days ≥30°C (avg per year)
13 days/yr
64 days/yr
Frost days ≤0°C (avg per year)
84 days/yr
16 days/yr
Heavy-precipitation days ≥20mm (avg per year)
3 days/yr
6 days/yr